Apr
01
2009
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The Real Iraq Civil War |
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Written by JD Johannes
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Wednesday, 01 April 2009 |
This report caught my attention over the weekend.
A less hyped report is here .
Most likely it is nothing. The coalition and ISF are always arresting bad guys posing as good guys. It is too easy in war to read too much into the daily events.
But, nearly two years ago I wrote about what could be the looming real civil war in Iraq and how it tied to the awakening movement.
I wrote then:
"They [Anbar Sunni Sheiks] may have also seen the need to build an Anbar based security force that can be used--if need be--to wage a real civil war against against the Shia.
"This civil war would not be teenaged death squads killing Shia or Sunni at random but the Beirut style civil war Fearon writes about. In other words, it would be a real civil war."
The non-civil war of 2006 and early 2007 that I witnessed was more of a sectarian blood debt run amok than a real civil war. All it took to stop the blood debt cycle was for U.S. Soldiers to stand between the factions and say "stop." Occasionally they took on the responsibility of carrying out the debt, hunting down and capturing or, if they resisted, killing the leading perpetrators of violence.
The Sunni are now armed and organized enough to wage a real civil war.
I doubt it will jump off.
But U.S. Soldiers will be needed for a long time to stand between the factions and to step in say "stop."
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