"The union's [AFL/CIO] efforts are so calibrated that all mailings are test marketed in advance of distribution to see which are the most effective," writes Leslie Wayne in the national print edition of this New York Times article . (I have no idea why the online version is shorter than the dead-tree version.)

Test marketing direct mail with a series randomized-double-blinds is not advanced calibration in my book--it is the basics.

But very few campaigns actually do it.  That the AFL/CIO mentions it as a point of pride shows how few groups and campaigns actually test their messages scientifically.

What worries me, and should worry McCain supporters and the GOP, is that the left is finally discovering the mathematics of how to win a campaign.

By using mail or other mediums with messages that are proven to convert voters, a campaign can sieze control of or even opt out of the OODA loop .

And when I say proven, I mean proven with mathematical certainty.  No focus groups, no people metered slide shows.  I mean test groups being polled, mailed, then polled again and control groups that have not been mailed.

And you keep doing it until you have dialed in on the words and images that convert voters.

Then you hold those messages until the last 6 weeks, then roll them out, closing the campaign with the message that has had the highest conversion rate.

This is not to discount the need for rapid response.  External events still need to be addressed.  You can never let an attack go unanswered.  (I nearly lost a big one because I blinked and didn't pull the trigger.)

But, when you let rapid response dictate the message, you have an untested message and are working off a guess.  Which is as accurate as a coin toss.

When a campaign begins rolling out messages that are proven to convert, and if the other side is merely guessing, the effects are devastating.

The side that is guessing will rapid response with a message on a hunch.  Which means they have to guess right six times in a row to overcome the tested message.  The laws of probability say you will usually only guess right 1/2 the time.

The campaign that is guessing, unless they get on a run of guessing correctly or external events play into their favor, will lose.

The Unions and various liberal groups appear to have quit guessing. 

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