First Obama's

Now McCain's....

The Obama ad was slapped together and at the very most ran through a focus group.  Focus groups are horribly unreliable way to determine whether an ad converts into votes or moves polls.

The McCain ad was also slapped together, but the overall message could have previously been tested and ready to go.

What do I mean by testing?  When I test something it is a double blind with a test group and a control group.  That is the only way to know if an ad converts into votes or moves poll numbers.

Obama and McCain are both playing rapid response to the headlines, which means Wall Street and the financial markets and major institutions in the banking and investment arena are now driving the OODA loop .

One of the hazards of a campaign responding rapidly to events is that a lot of money and time can be wasted on a message that does not convert.

Visually, I give the edge to Obama's because it looks cheap.

The most effective ad I've seen this election cycle is really low budget.  I have ceased to be amazed at how well un-slick ads convert.

Message wise, well, it doesn't have much of message.  All it says is that there is a lot of bad stuff happening and yet John McCain thinks everything is O.K.  It does not explain how and why Obama, who does understand the economy is broken will fix things.

The McCain ad is a little more artsy, acknowledges there are problems and that you can trust him to protect your money.  At least it has a discernable message and I think the message has been tested.

Will these either of these ads convert?

Visually, I give Obama the edge, message wise McCain wins because it is actually has a message.

The IndyMac visual in the McCain will be lost on everyone but the most die-hard news junkies.  Most Presidential voters are not news junkies and far from die-hard junkies.

Both campaigns at this stage are willing to drop millions of dollars and a message week with untested ads.

Personally, I think spending that kind of money and time on an untested message disqualifies one from holding office.  They are running those ads based on guess, a hunch, a gut instinct which will only be right about half the time.

Net result--it will be a wash.  Random and external events will have a greater impact than these two ads.  Wall Street and the media covering it are in charge of the OODA loop for now. 

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