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"Sen. McCain may not be willing to face the reality of the situation, but a majority of Americans are." Obama Campaign Spokesman David Axelrod, May 28, 2008
"Still, the rapidly improving conditions should allow U.S. commanders to make some welcome adjustments -- and it ought to mandate an already-overdue rethinking by the "this-war-is-lost" caucus in Washington, including Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.)...When Mr. Obama floated his strategy for Iraq last year, the United States appeared doomed to defeat. Now he needs a plan for success." Washington Post Editorial Board, June 1, 2008
Reconciling those divergent statements is Obama's challenge.
Iraq Opinion and Knowledge by the numbers:
40% of Americans "Never Heard of..." David Petraeus. Pew Research Center Poll, March 24-29, 2008
The following are from the same Pew Research Center poll conducted April 23-27, 2008
"Regardless of who you support, which one of the presidential candidates John McCain or Barack Obama--do you think would do the best job of making wise decisions about what to do in Iraq?"
McCain 50% Obama 38%
"Do you think the U.S. made the right decision or the wrong decision in using military force against Iraq?"
Right decision 37% Wrong decision 57%
"How well is the U.S. military effort in Iraq going?"
Very well 10%
Fairly well 34%
Not too well 28%
Not at all well 24%
"Do you think the U.S. should keep military troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized, or do you think the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible?"
Keep troops in Iraq 41% Bring troops home 56%
Of the people who answered, "Bring troops home" "Should the U.S. remove all troops from Iraq immediately, or should the withdrawal of troops be gradual over a year or two?"
Remove all troops immediately 16%
Gradual withdrawal 39%
"Regardless of what you think about the original decision to use military force in Iraq, do you now believe the United States will..."
Definately succeed 12%
Probably succeed 35%
Probably fail 30%
Definately fail 16%
"As I read a few specific things about Iraq, tell me if you think we are making progress or losing ground in each area..."
Training Iraqi security forces so they can replace U.S. troops:
Making progress 53% Losing ground 32%
*Reducing the number of civillian casualties there:
Making progress 37%
Losing ground 48%
Preventing terrorists from using Iraq as a base for attacks against the U.S. and its allies:
Making Progress 45%
Losing ground 41%
Establishing democracy in Iraq:
Making progress 39%
Losing ground 46%
*Defeating the insurgents militarily:
Making progress 42%
Losing ground 43%
*Preventing a civil war between various religious and ethnic groups:
Making progress 33%
Losing ground 51%
(*Indicates poll area where public opinion widely diverges from established and measureable data .)
Obama's challenge, as it relates to Iraq and his campaign, is to maintain the divergence in public opinion from established and measurable opinion as it relates to preventing a civil war, defeating insurgents and reducing the number of civillian casualties.
The last thing he can afford is for the American people--especially the 40% who have never heard of David Petraeus--to be exposed to the views of the Washington Post editorial board.
Obama already faces a deficit in making "wise decisions" about Iraq. A realignment of public opinion with the established and measurable data would increase is "wise decisions" deficit.
There are only two ways to generate enough Gross Ratings Points (GRPs) to realign public opinion with the facts--through the news media or paid advertising. The disappearance of Iraq from the news ensures that the requisite GRPs to realign public opinion with the facts will not happen that way. Therefore, the requisite GRPs will have to be purchased.
If they are purchased, those who back Obama will have to increase their GRP outlay through an obliging media or purchasing them.
In our Federal election system, a state-by-state advertising campaign would be required. A minimum of 2,000 GRPs in each key state.
It should not be held off until August or September or October when the airwaves are cluttered but executed now when unit ad rates are cheaper and have a better chance of realigning opinion.
The quote at the beginning of this blog clearly shows Obama's position and his challenge--maintaining the ignorance of most Americans to the reality on the ground in Iraq.
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