Mar
28
2009
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Obama's AfPak Plan |
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Written by JD Johannes
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Saturday, 28 March 2009 |
Here's the white paper on President Obama's AfPak Plan.
Nothing in it to really disagree with. But, more telling, there is nothing to indicate that it will become successful.
In 2007 I was confident the Surge would succeed because it was attached to a complete change in strategy, codified in Army/Marine Field Manual FM 3-24.
In it one saw tried and true counter insurgency techniques employed by French in Algeria, British in Malaya and even Napoleanic troops in the Rhineland.
Many of those techniques will apply to Afghanistan.
The six-page paper produced by the administration does not inspire the confidence that one could see in the surge's application of solid counter insurgency principles.
Knowing that Petraeus is now commanding Cent Com and is personally overseeing the development of Afghan strategy and tactics gives me more hope than the administration's white paper.
But Afghanistan is not Iraq.
There is a great body of writing on Afghanistan from the British Victorian era. The British faced the same challenges we face. Indeed, the only thing that has changed in Afghanistan is the technology of the weaponry.
In my pre-deployment reading there is a recurring theme to these works, one summed up best by Robert Warburton:
"...to deal with Afghans, officers must be employed who have knowledge of their languages, customs and ways."
That quote comes from Warburton's memoir "Eighteen Years in the Khyber."
Let the title of the book sink in for a moment. Eighteen Years stationed in and around the Khyber pass. There were British officers stationed there before him and after him.
Warburton was the son of a British Officer and Afghan mother.
The administration's paper concludes:
"There are no quick fixes to achieve U.S. national security interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The danger of failure is real and the implications are grave."
Very few in America had the patience to see the surge through--even though it only took 18 months to achieve the objective.
Does the administration have the patience to create a modern generation of Warburtons who may spend 18 years in the Khyber?
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