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Sep 17 2007
Not a Big Surprise Print E-mail
Written by JD Johannes   
Monday, 17 September 2007

From the AP--Shia tribal leaders looking to score the same deal as Sunni tribal leaders. 

At some point the Shia had to figure out that the Sunnis, by taking care of their Al Qaida problem would put the Sunnis in the good graces of the coalition. 

And after last week's testimony by General Petraeus and Ambassador Cocker, everyone realizes this one is going the distance--even Obama's most recent update of his plan to end the war is not a complete withdrawal.

The old-school Sheik system in the river valleys is about land holdings and money.  The JAM affiliated gangs may not be the same type of butchers as Al Qaida, but they are not good for the old tribal business. 

If Shia tribes are looking to join up with the coalition that is the clearest sign that the Maliki regime has failed to master the mothers milk of Mesopotamian politics--patronage. 

Hasan al-Bakr, Iraq's leader in the late 60's and early 70's and the man who made Sadaam Huessain, was a master of patronage even drawing--you guessed it--the Shia tribal leaders into the network. 

The young deputy sheiks of the 70's are now the leaders of the tribes and the varying business interests of the tribes. 

The deals in 70's were indeed with a devil and even if they think the U.S. is the great satan--we are still good for business. 

If enough of the sourthern and middle valley Sheiks decide to get on with business and join with the coalition, Iran will have two choices--get out or get it on. 

On a final note--much is being made of the ABC poll about the Sunnis of Anbar wanting the coalition to leave.  A novice would read that and say 'see, even the people who are working with us want us out.' 

But they fail to understand counter insurgency.  Winning hearts and minds is not the goal.  Whether they like us or not is irrelevant. 

What counts is that they like us more than Al Qaida.


 

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