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Aug 24 2007
NIE's Key Judgement Print E-mail
Written by JD Johannes   
Friday, 24 August 2007

After 5 pages of introductory material, including this statement,

"Driven largely by the accelerating pace of tribal engagement and the increasing tempo of Coalition operations, developments in Iraq are unfolding more rapidly and with greater complexity today than when we completed our January NIE....."

As I and many have noted, the speed of battlefield has outpaced distinguished professors published in Foreign Affairs and much commentariat.

This NIE is catching up to conditions on the ground that were developing months ago.

But they Key Judgment is made on the last page:

"We assess that changing the mission of Coalition forces from a primarily counterinsurgency and stabilization role to a primary combat support role for Iraqi forces and counterterrorist operations to prevent AQI from establishing a safehaven would erode security gains achieved thus far. The impact of a change in mission on Iraq's political and security environment and throughout the region probably would vary in intensity and suddenness of onset in relation to the rate and scale of a Coalition redeployment. Developments within the Iraqi communities themselves will be decisive in determining political and security trajectories."  (Emphasis in original)

About a year ago, snippets of an NIE were leaked to great fanfare in the press.

But this snippet from the most recent NIE is ignored.


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