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In the past I have cautioned people against making predictions about Iraq as they have a habit of not coming true.
But, one prediction I made in late April has, unfortunately, come true.
Late one night while logging video I commented to Andrew Lubin that I thought this Summer would be the most violent and bloody Summer of the war.
It is starting to look that way.
My rationale was, and still is, simple. If the Anbar Awakening works, AQIZ is in trouble and will be seen as losing not only the war against the U.S. but of losing support among their core constituency--Sunni Muslims.
Baghdad will be increasingly violent because if the surge shows even some signs of success, it will be extended and therefore deny victory to those who profit by chaos and a U.S. departure.
The best way for AQIZ and Jaysh al Mahdi puppet masters to derail the surge and the awakening is through spectacular violence--truck bombs, suicide vest bombs, suicide attacks on coalition bases and increasingly violent ways to carry out the sectarian murder campaigns.
The spectacular generates news media coverage and ratings points that drown out all other facts and progress leading public opinion to an ill informed conclusion--that the whole project should be abandoned because it cannot be won.
As the summer wears on expect more spectacular and more frequent attacks.
I also predict the Anbar Awakening will not remain isolated to Anbar. The Sheiks of Anbar are already reaching out to other Sunni provinces. These Sheiks will embrace the Anbar model of local neighborhood watches, check points and an IP that works with the coalition.
The Sheiks of Anbar will also be sending more 'qualified men' to Sunni suburbs in Baghdad.
I predict that this encroachment of neighborhood watches in Baghdad will bring AQIZ and the Persian Paymasters of JAM to a mutual understanding--neither of them profit by anything that looks like success so they will tacitly work together to make sure the spectacular attacks keep coming and the murders continue.
The justification for JAM and AQIZ are mutually reinforcing after all and they have a common enemy in the U.S. led coaltion.
The Iraqi Parliment and Maliki government will grow increasingly hostile to the U.S. presence as the Awakening spreads.
It will be obvious by that time that Tehran is pulling the strings.
The Sheiks of Anbar, seeing that the best way to end the madness is to form up a coalition, will then reach out to the more mainstream Shia political elements--maybe going as far as trying to strike a deal with Sadr himself.
Tehran and AQIZ seeing this will have but one course of action--forming an alliance and then the real war will begin.
Do I expect any of this to come true? No.
But then again, about this time last year a Marine Officer was writing a report that Anbar was lost.
The fortunes of war are unpredictable and if I'm going to make bold predictions I will predict the worse case scenario possible because that is what should drive decision making.
If AQIZ and the Iranians team up against the Sunnis who will by that time be in good favor with the coalition policy makers will have choice--throw in with the Sunni to defeat AQIZ and Iranian influenced groups or turn their backs on the ones who stood with us, albeit belatededly, against AQIZ.
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