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I received a few comments and questions about my my being such a big fan of census data.
The Battle of Baquba and Operation Alljah in Fallujah provide an interesting comparison showing why I like census work so much--it moves toward an end state.
The Battle of Baquba, in its current phase, is big and kinetic and is an excellent disruption operation that can be engaged while the regular work in Baghdad's Mahala's continues.
But anyone who thinks it will achieve an end state in phase one is sorely mistaken. This operational phase was not designed to achieve an endstate. There are no knock-out punch battles. That is the nature of counter insurgency.
An insurgency is not defeated--it is denied the ability to operate to the point where one day when things are quiet and have been quiet for a long time, the military decides it is finally won.
In the words of Dr. David Kilcullen, an insurgency is asphyxiated, "by cutting him off from the people."
Mao said, "The guerrilla must move amongst the people as a fish swims in the sea."
The goal then is remove the oxygen from the sea.
[I previously discussed this in the blog post Body Counts vs. Victory.]
Operation in Alljah in Fallujah is designed to achieve an end state.
It is not big, it is not kinetic. It is a slow, methodical process that involves a bunch of forms being filled out, photos and a retinal scan.
By the end of the Summer Fallujah will be tamed and quite possibly pacified and very quiet.
Baquba will simmer after this phase, but the fire in Fallujah is being extinguished.
Why? Because Operation Alljah in Fallujah is designed to deny the insurgents the ability to operate in Fallujah permanently.
I also know a bit about the Commanding Officer of the Marine Battalion leading the effort--Lt. Col. Mullen.
I met Lt. Col. Mullen when he was the operations officer for Regimental Combat Team 8 back in 2005.
He was one of a multitude of Marine officers who kept telling me about what the British did in Maylaya.
He is now putting that precedent into effect by moving through Fallujah very slowly, gathering census data, issuing ID cards and blocking off entire neighborhoods.
The census data is the key.
Each neighborhood will have a neighborhood watch made up of Provisional Security Forces, Police and Indigenous Counter-insurgency Forces and a platoon or squad of Marines.
The neighborhoods will be exclusive gated communities--exclusive to the people who live or have legitimate business there. No one else is allowed through the gates.
The census and ID cards are the key to sorting out who belongs in what area.
Insurgents will not be able to move among the people and hide in plain sight.
But it will take months if not years to root out all the irreconcilables.
Baquba is the exact opposite in this phase.
The soldiers are moving slowly and methodically to locate and capture/kill the irreconcilables. They are likely checking a lot of IDs, but not gathering detailed census data or leaving behind gated communities.
That will come later. Possibly weeks later.
Michael Yon's description is encouraging because a unit that moves slow is more likely to sort out the bad guys hiding in plain sight.
But the kinetic phase of Arrowhead Ripper will come to a close in a week or four.
The kinetic work with its explosions and gun fights is exciting.
But what will excite me is when soldiers, interpreters and Iraqi Security Forces start issuing IDs.
When the guys show up with forms, digi cameras and retinal scanners--that is when the insurgents will no longer have the ability to operate in an area and a true endstate achieved.
As Kilcullen is explaining things, the end of the kinetic phase of Arrowhead Ripper will bring about the building outpost phase, neighborhood watch phase, census phase, civic projects and finally asphyxiation.
Why am I such a big fan of census work? Because it achieves an end state. The best part of it is that after the initial kinetic phase we can tell the bad guys exactly what is coming and it will do them no good. Even if they go to ground with false IDs, they will be slowly strangled.
But I doubt many U.S. Senators and their staffers understand this so we could come to a point where the insurgency is gasping for oxygen and they declare defeat.
Freedom isn't free...and neither is reporting from Iraq.
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