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Mar 29 2008
Long, Long War Print E-mail
Written by JD Johannes   
Saturday, 29 March 2008
The recent uptick of rocket attacks is a reminder...it takes a long time to extinguish an insurgency.

Colonel G.I. Wilson, who appears in my documentaries, had this to say about his greatest fear--that we think we have won, before the job is done.


He is talking about the movie 'The Battle of Algiers' directed by Gillo Pontecorvo.

The French experience in Algeria is important to remember.

By late 1958, the French had mostly dismantled the insurgents through the brutal battle of Algiers and the insurgents had in many ways lost the will to fight.  But the French Government had a curious reaction to the military victory--it began to negotiate a peace with the insurgents.

The insurgents came back.  Shortly after independence the insurgents murdered 150,000 people.

The insurgents had not been defeated--just deferred.

The British, took a different approach in Malaya--the did not declare victory and grant independence until several years after they had won.  They probably had the war won for three years before they declared it won.

As pointed out in this study , the insurgents of Iraq are rational actors who use the media as part of their strategy. 

The Harvard researchers concluded:  

"...it appears that Iraqi insurgent groups believe that when the U.S. political landscape is more uncertain, initiating a higher level of attacks increases the likelihood that the U.S. will reduce the scope of its engagement in the conflict."

The goal of many insurgent elements is for the coalition to just leave Iraq.

A cessation in violence on their part, that leads to withdrawal on our part, followed by a ramp up in violence on their part, would be a strategy that could turn the tide politically in the U.S.

The French had won the battle of Algiers, then gave it to the insurgents in negotiations. 

 

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